遠々洛外
  • 遠々洛外のブログ - Far Beyond the Miyako Blog

The Third Coming of Shinzo Abe

7/9/2015

 
Picturewww.blogs.yahoo.co.jp
All Japanese domestic media on Tuesday reported that the incumbent PM Shinzo Abe had been re-elected unopposed as President of the LDP (the first such election to occur in 14 years) (J). In many respects, this was not a surprise, as many factors had drawn together to ensure that PM Abe would continue as party leader.  Firstly, next year the upper house of the Diet will be facing elections, and it would be a foolish party that would jettison its best chance of retaining seats by removing the most powerful political figure in Japanese politics in the last 15 years.  Abe’s re-election guarantees that he will be in office until at least 2018, thereby making him Japan’s longest serving PM, a legacy that almost no-one (yours truly included) predicted when Abe put up his hand for the presidency back in September 2012.  Abe’s control over the various factions within the LDP (seven of which voted in favour of his re-election) also freed him from being beholden to any factional leader and removed any threat to his position (Noda Seiko attempted to run against Abe, but her lack of support within the party soon became apparent and prompted her withdrawal from the ballot) (J).

One surprise from this particular ballot was the fact that a previous challenger to Abe, Ishiba Shigeru, chose not to run against the incumbent PM. This apparently came as a disappointment to many of his supporters in his home prefecture of Tottori (J), but then again perhaps there was method in Ishiba’s reticence. As Regional Development Minister, Ishiba comes into frequent contact with those regional representatives and voters who have proven crucial in past elections to securing the prime ministership. With Abe’s position currently unassailable, and given the fact that the security bills on collective self defence have polarised public and party opinion, Ishiba might have regarded it wiser to bide his time, exercising influence on the LDP members, and slowly working his way towards the leadership.  

This does appear to be what Ishiba has chosen to do, with news coming out on Wednesday that Ishiba had moved to create his own faction within the LDP with a membership of around 20 to 30 previously unaffiliated MPs (J and J).  This is without doubt a consequence of Abe’s unopposed election, for if Ishiba (who was previously unaffiliated with any faction) learned anything from his experience in 2012, it was that Abe has most LDP factions under his control, hence if one wishes to promote oneself as a leader one better have enough inter-party support to make it happen. Forming your own faction is one way to do this, and Ishiba has taken the first steps towards making himself a possible alternative to the entrenched LDP powerbase personified by the figures of Abe, Aso, and the like.

In the meantime Abe’s re-election means that the entire question of the security bills will continue to dominate the media cycle in Japan for a few weeks yet.  The extended ordinary session of the Diet ends on September 27th, and all indications are that the Abe government intends to have the bills passed by the Upper House as of Wednesday the 16th.  On this occasion, the government does not intend to use the so-called “60 day rule” (whereby if legislation introduced and passed by the Lower House is subsequently sent to the Upper House, yet the Upper House cannot reach an agreement on it after a period of 60 days, the legislation returns to the Lower House and passes into law), although they haven’t completely ruled it out using it either (J).

A real test of Abe’s leadership will come if and when the security legislation is made law. With constitutional scholars pointing to the illegality of the legislation and protests occurring across the length and breadth of Japan in opposition to the government’s plans, not forgetting to mention opinion polls that reveal a general confusion among the public about the bills and whether they are appropriate for Japan, the passage of the bills could instigate protest actions of a type not seen in Japan in two generations. However the reality of Japan’s current security situation and the positive reaction that the bills have garnered from Japan’s ally the US and closer affiliates in the region might take some of the wind out of the protestors’ sails.

Time and again Abe has pointed to the encroachment on Japanese territory by Chinese government aircraft and vessels and the need for Japan to play a more active role in security operations in the region and further afield, and has used these two factors as evidence that the time has come for Japan to assume the responsibilities that accompany Japan’s global status as a financial powerhouse and stable, democratic nation defending the rule of law. He is, in a sense, trying to match the expectations of other nations while also challenging the Japanese citizenry to adopt a more ‘real politik’ view of their current circumstances and how the nation must adapt or risk being isolated against a rising China.  Not surprisingly, he has run into opposition to this plan, especially as some believe that the SDF is perfectly adequate of defending Japan without the need to become involved in overseas operations, especially not operations that might result in casualties.

So the security bills are a kind of battle of wills – that of the government versus those of the protestors and nearly all of the opposition parties in the Diet. On this issue, PM Abe may have the upper hand. Voter apathy was the reason Abe was re-elected at the end of last year, and that same apathy has allowed the LDP/Komeito government to pass legislation that might otherwise become bogged down in negotiations with effective opposition parties. The absence of such parties, and the apathy that brought this about, is thus a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy. A weak opposition, and voter disinterest in politics, have given Abe the keys he needs to bring about a fundamental shift in Japan’s security position. What he then does once the shift has occurred, however, is where things will get really interesting.



Comments are closed.

    Author

    This is a blog maintained by Greg Pampling in order to complement his webpage, Pre-Modern Japanese Resources.  All posts are attributable to Mr Pampling alone, and reflect his personal opinion on various aspects of Japanese history and politics (among other things).

    弊ブログをご覧になって頂きまして誠に有難うございます。グレッグ・パンプリングと申します。このブログに記載されている記事は全て我の個人的な意見であり、日本の歴史、又は政治状態、色々な話題について触れています。

    Categories

    All
    Disasters 災害
    Edo Period 江戸時代
    Japan Australia Relations 日豪関係
    Japanese Politics 日本の政治
    Japan Korea Relations 日韓関係
    Kamakura Period 鎌倉時代
    Meiji Period 明治時代
    Miscellaneous 雑学
    Muromachi Period 室町時代
    Regional Politics 地域の政治
    Regional Politics 地域の政治
    Second World War 太平洋戦争
    Sengoku Period 戦国時代

    Archives

    January 2023
    January 2022
    December 2021
    August 2021
    October 2020
    September 2020
    July 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    December 2019
    July 2019
    February 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    March 2017
    January 2017
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012
    November 2012
    October 2012
    September 2012
    August 2012
    July 2012
    June 2012
    May 2012

    RSS Feed

© 2023 www.farbeyondthemiyako.com. All Rights Reserved.