Last Friday saw Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull make his way to Japan for the third of his bilateral visits to the region and the last one for this year. Newspaper reports leading up to the visit emphasised that Turnbull had wanted to get in a quick visit to Tokyo before the year was out to not only re-affirm the relationship between Australia and Japan, but to ensure that this was done before Turnbull heads to Washington in the New Year and to Beijing at some later point next year (echoes of Kevin Rudd’s major faux pas might have convinced many in the PMO (Prime Minister’s Office) that this was a necessity ahead of any visit by the PM to China).

The Tokyo visit itself did not, it must be admitted, garner a huge amount of interest from the Australian media. Nevertheless the message from this visit primarily emphasised the idea of innovation (a favourite topic of PM Turnbull at present) and the need for closer security co-operation between both countries. This latter message pretty much signalled that it was ‘business as usual’ between Japan and Australia on the defence/security front, so much so that China’s nationalist Global Times newspaper went as far as claiming that Turnbull’s visit demonstrated that he was growing closer to Japan despite his ‘historic’ affinity for China.

Turnbull, for his part, was effortlessly charming throughout his short stay, heaping praise on Japan’s higher education sector and Japan’s ability to encourage innovation. He also brokered an agreement to collaborate on both urban transport and high-speed rail, not forgetting to mention energy projects involving liquid natural gas and hydrogen. Although it might be difficult to see right now, the fruits of this agreement will be felt in the years to come as Australia finally gets around to pursuing infrastructure projects aimed at decongestion in urban centres and the modernisation of Australia’s rural/urban connections (high speed rail can play a fundamental role in getting more of the population to shift to rural areas and thus decrease the pressures on cities such as Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane).    

The biggest topic of all, the future submarine program, appears to have been discussed by both leaders, although the details of that discussion have been kept under wraps. PM Abe only went so far as to declare that both leaders had a ‘good exchange of views’, which suggests that all bets are off under the current evaluation process for the submarine project. Of greater concern to Australia was the issue of Japan’s resumption of whaling in the Southern Ocean. With Japan skirting around the ruling of the ICJ last year, PM Turnbull was adamant to bring this back to Japan’s attention and note Australia’s “grave disappointment” with how Japan had acted.  While the temptation might have been there to extrapolate on this, PM Turnbull declined to be too forthright with Japan over the whaling issue (a degree of rationality that was entirely missing from his predecessor Kevin Rudd), mentioning Australia’s views but ensuring that this was all kept in perspective and was not in any way provocative.

That particular facet of information might result in a Green backlash against Turnbull in the Senate, given the amount of air the Greens have expunged on the need to ‘get tough’ with Japan on the issue of whaling, but the reality is that all sides of politics are intelligent enough not to jeopardise good relations for the sake of mollifying a small but vocal parliamentary party.
 
So on to 2016. 2015 was a year with enough dramatic twists and turns of its own, so who knows what next year will bring? On the one hand, it will witness an upgrade in the security relationship between Australia and Japan, hence there will be more ministerial visits going on between both countries as they expand their degrees of interactivity and joint exercise activity.  The decision on submarines will of course be a defining moment in the bilateral relationship, because this will establish what the Australia-Japan dynamic will be for the next decade.  Japan has a lot riding on that decision, and is earnest in its desire to work together with Australia for regional stability. It hopes that Australia sees things the same way, because stability will only be found in the number of states prepared to co-operate to ensure that all adhere to the laws that govern the region.

As for myself, this year has had its ups and downs, dramatic changes and enlightening experiences. Of note was my trip to North America, one that I thoroughly enjoyed and wish to do again at some point. The New Year will bring with it added challenges, but at this stage I believe that I should embrace challenges and see where they take me.  I’ve maintained this blog since 2012, and honestly I didn’t think I’d still be writing it in 2015. I’ve examined a great number of issues from a variety of angles, and provided some translations along the way for good measure. I think it’s high time I brought this blog to a more mainstream audience (if anything to get my number of views up!), so expect a change to happen there in 2016.

In sum, I wish all a happy and safe end of year period, and all the very best in the New Year.  

Over the weekend, PM Abe made his way to Delhi for another round of meetings with Indian PM Narendra Modi (I say this as the two have met at least twice for talks in the past three weeks – once at the EAS, and again at the COP21), although this time it was a bona fide bilateral visit in order to discuss infrastructure investment and defence. From all reports the visit was a success, with a great slew of agreements signed promising everything from intelligence sharing, high speed rail development, and nuclear energy co-operation among them.

The development of the India-Japan relationship in many ways resembles that of Australia’s relations with Japan, except in the case of India there is a much larger potential benefit to Japan in forging closer ties to the Indo-Pacific’s most populous democracy. While both countries have broadened their relationship as a counterweight to China’s influence on the region, the sheer scale of India’s infrastructure needs, coupled with its promise of a broad middle class, provide Japan with another avenue into which to pour its expertise and thus invigorate sluggish domestic Japanese industries.

For most of this year, Abe was assured by the presence in India and Australia of two like-minded conservative leaders who shared his concerns regarding China and wished to see Japan play a more pro-active role in the region. The Australian end of this relationship was temporarily thrown into doubt following the removal of Tony Abbott, yet all indications are that Malcolm Turnbull will place as much emphasis on the importance of solid relations with Japan both as a security measure and as a potential market to inspire Australian innovation.

To that end, next week Mr Turnbull will be making his way to Tokyo for talks with PM Abe ($). Clearly the main topic of discussion will involve Australia’s Future Submarine Project and Australia’s intentions regarding this, but there will be plenty of other topics at hand, including the South China Sea, the Japan-Australia Economic Partnership Agreement, Japanese investment in Australia, and the potential for more joint exercises between the ADF and the SDF (not forgetting the contentious topic of whaling). To be honest, the timing of the visit is a bit of a surprise, coming smack bang in the middle of the Christmas season which means that only foreign policy tragics and journalists will be paying attention to it.

Given the promise made last year to have an annual leaders’ meeting between Australia and Japan, there certainly was a pressing need for a bilateral dialogue to occur before years’ end. However given that Turnbull met with Abe at the G20 and again at the EAS, one could be forgiven for thinking that both leaders had already made their views known to each other and that they would be content to leave it at that. But Turnbull knows that a healthy relationship with Japan depends on his personal rapport with PM Abe and that there is a need to provide a reassurance to Japan that relations haven’t changed. So despite the late scheduling, Turnbull will find himself in Tokyo talking to a leader very much focused on broadening Japan’s relationship with Australia in whatever capacity possible. 

Hence expectations are that this will be a successful, if somewhat more low key bilateral visit to Japan. Next year of course Abe will have to return the compliment, and given that it is an election year in Australia, coupled with a pending decision on the future submarine project, 2016 promises to be a very interesting period of time in the bilateral relationship, and the outcome of all of those events will dictate the trajectory of bilateral ties for more than a decade to come.

There were two particular issues that I wanted to touch upon this week. The first deals with an interview conducted by Bloomberg Press with Kono Taro, currently Minister responsible for the National Police Agency in Japan, who explained during the interview that Japan could be vulnerable to a cyber attack launched by Islamic State in the lead-up to Tokyo Olympics in 2020. The commentary reveals that Japan is aware of the potential threat that IS poses to domestic security in Japan, given that Japan has given its support to the coalition campaign against IS and provided humanitarian aid to those fleeing from the chaos prevalent in Iraq and Syria. The capture and execution of Goto Kenji in January this year also brought home to the Abe government the stark realisation that IS would target Japanese citizens, and that this potential threat needed to be addressed.
 
For the past year and a half, Japan has gradually been increasing its internal and external intelligence capabilities. It established its own National Security Committee, boosted the role of the Cabinet Intelligence and Research Office (CIRO), and has been consulting with the CIA, MI6, as well as Australia`s own ASIS (as revealed by the Australian newspaper earlier this year) in order to (re) establish a foreign intelligence gathering ability on par with those of other democratic partners. While the potential for IS to organise an attack on Japan is more limited than other nations, there potential is still there and given the nature of IS attacks no scenario can be discounted. Japan`s security position, surrounded as it is by potential rivals and less-than-co-operative democratic partners, means that it must invest more heavily in intelligence capabilities to offset the more expensive option of boosting its direct military spending (which has increased in recent years, but which will reach a limit with the onset of drastic social aging). Forewarned might therefore become the byword of Japan`s security position more so than forearmed.
 
The other issue that caught my interest this week was a report (J) in the Sankei Shimbun on Thursday, which revealed that in October this year, former PM Hatoyama Yukio found himself surrounded by a `horde` of right-wing protest vehicles who proceeded to block Hatoyama`s car from being able to proceed through an intersection and subjected the former PM to barrage of criticism. Anybody who has lived in urban Japan for some time will have encountered these particular vehicles before. They are usually painted all black with nationalist slogans painted on them or hanging off them on placards, with a prominent Imperial chrysanthemum crest attached to the back, and about four of five loudspeakers on the top of them blasting out nationalist music and calling on Japan to `restore the Imperial throne, throw out the US, expel all Chinese and Chosen immigrants` etc.     
 
That they chose former PM Hatoyama is not a surprise, given that he is most known for trying to move US forces out of Okinawa, and establishing a more constructive relationship with China and South Korea, not to mention his visits to the Middle East and Russia to speak directly with leaders whom Western nations might prefer to keep at arm`s length. To the right wing in Japan, Hatoyama is little less than a traitor, and have targeted him for protests in the past. So for around 10 minutes on the 4th of October, Hatoyama was forced to listen to such diatribes until the intersection was cleared by police and Hatoyama`s car allowed to proceed.
 
The group responsible for this act of intimidation, the Sōmōkukki no Kai, is a far right-wing group that takes its name from a quote attributed to Yoshida Shōin (one of the inspirations behind the Meiji Restoration), and which essentially means `the people rise up`.  This group has previously threatened anti-nuclear protestors and made themselves a nuisance to the general population. Their actions against former PM Hatoyama might have been one step too far, however, as their head office was subject to a National Police Agency raid on Thursday and had their propaganda vehicles confiscated.
 
Political violence in Japan is not a new phenomenon, but the intimidation of a former PM by right-wing protestors is a unique event and one that prompts questions about the security provided for former PMs. Hatoyama has retired from politics hence his personal security is one that he himself is responsible for, but given his political past and recent activities he is a target for protest. Whether this incident ends in any changes to closer protection remains to be seen, but it would be unusual if it didn`t.