遠々洛外
  • 遠々洛外のブログ - Far Beyond the Miyako Blog

The Reverse Mukden

8/2/2013

 
PictureSource: japanese.china.org.cn
Events this week between China and Japan have, unfortunately, provoked an increase in tensions to a degree that raises the probability of an incident between the military forces of both countries. As was pointed out by Benjamin Schreer on the ASPI blog The Strategist, China now conceives of its position on the Senkaku Islands in the same manner as its relations with Taiwan, in that it will insist on its right to sovereignty over the islands and accommodate no attempt to reach a compromise lest this be perceived as weakness on its part.  The revelation (J) by Defence Minister Onodera on Tuesday that on two separate occasions in January, Chinese naval vessels (described as being of frigate class) used their fire-control radars to ping a SDF naval vessel located 3km from their position, as well as pinging an SH-60J Seahawk helicopter, set off a storm of diplomatic protest from Japan. The Abe cabinet subsequently warned that such provocative acts were incredibly dangerous in the current bilateral climate, called on the Chinese to exercise greater restraint (J), and suggested that China be removed as a permanent member of the UN Security Council for violating article six of the UN constitution(J).

In a press conference at the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Wednesday, China’s diplomatic arm stated that it was investigating the background of the incidents to determine whether Japan’s protests were factually based, which essentially implied that the Ministry had no idea that they had taken place(J).  This raises a particularly worrying question which stems from comments made in the Japanese defence white paper of 2012. In the paper, it stated that there were elements within the PLA which are inclined to act unilaterally and influence foreign policy without recourse to other government organs (as analysed here). The fact that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs publicly stated it had no idea what the PLAN were doing or had done five months previously gives further credence to Japan’s analysis of China’s internal dynamic, and suggests that should an incident occur near the Senkaku Islands, China’s diplomatic arm will be forced to react to a situation without warning thereby undermining its credibility with foreign governments.

It appears that this act of provocation on the part of the PLAN was an attempt to test the reaction of the US to any threat to Japan’s control of the Senkaku Islands, as well as testing the resolve of the Abe Cabinet and its claims to sovereignty over the island. If Japan had retaliated, China could claim it was the victim of Japanese aggression, a position the domestic Chinese media has been promoting over the last few months in anticipation of the Abe cabinet’s accession to power (E). The PLAN could then point to the need for greater naval surveillance of the islands to ward off Japanese attacks on Chinese vessels, and that any subsequent retaliation by China against Japan would be justified by Japan’s initial act. The Central Committee would find its options for negotiating with Japan reduced, for domestic anger directed at Japan (and the US as Japan’s principal ally) would demand tough rhetoric on the part of Xi Jinping and other senior members of the Central Committee. Far from being able to dictate events, the CCP would find itself being drawn into a conflict propagated by the PLA, the outcome of which would have dire consequences for the region.

The role of the military in forcing the hand of government is a phenomenon that is centuries old and confined to no specific continent or society.   The acts of the PLAN indeed do bring to mind those of officers within the Imperial Japanese Army in the prelude to the Mukden Incident of September 18, 1931. In that instance, an act of sabotage perpetrated by army officers, with the tacit approval of their commanders, served as a pretext for the invasion of Manchuria. What the PLAN did off the Senkaku Islands could therefore be regarded as a Mukden-like Incident in reverse, providing justification for military action on the basis of overt hostility on the part of Japan. Like the Mukden Incident it could provoke a wider conflict, with global bodies powerless to intervene as the states involved harden their stance and resent any resolution that would weaken their claims to sovereignty and right to self defence.      

In all, it is a disturbing development, and hopefully there will be no repeat of it.

As for the news of an incursion of Japanese airspace by two Sukhoi Su-27 aircraft on Thursday, more on this in the next post.


Comments are closed.

    Author

    This is a blog maintained by Greg Pampling in order to complement his webpage, Pre-Modern Japanese Resources.  All posts are attributable to Mr Pampling alone, and reflect his personal opinion on various aspects of Japanese history and politics (among other things).

    弊ブログをご覧になって頂きまして誠に有難うございます。グレッグ・パンプリングと申します。このブログに記載されている記事は全て我の個人的な意見であり、日本の歴史、又は政治状態、色々な話題について触れています。

    Categories

    All
    Disasters 災害
    Edo Period 江戸時代
    Japan Australia Relations 日豪関係
    Japanese Politics 日本の政治
    Japan Korea Relations 日韓関係
    Kamakura Period 鎌倉時代
    Meiji Period 明治時代
    Miscellaneous 雑学
    Muromachi Period 室町時代
    Regional Politics 地域の政治
    Regional Politics 地域の政治
    Second World War 太平洋戦争
    Sengoku Period 戦国時代

    Archives

    January 2023
    January 2022
    December 2021
    August 2021
    October 2020
    September 2020
    July 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    December 2019
    July 2019
    February 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    March 2017
    January 2017
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012
    November 2012
    October 2012
    September 2012
    August 2012
    July 2012
    June 2012
    May 2012

    RSS Feed

© 2023 www.farbeyondthemiyako.com. All Rights Reserved.