Shukan Shinko/blog.goo.ne.jp
If there was a prize distributed for political ineptness, one would be hard pressed to decide whether this should be given to former Minister of Law Tanaka Keishu for demonstrating unparalleled arrogance in refusing to attend a summons issued by the House of Councillors Oversight Committee last Thursday to answer questions on his previous ties to organised crime groups and accepting foreign donations (which Tanaka acknowledged after they were first revealed by weekly magazine Shukan Shinko) (J), or to the DPJ for blithely accepting Tanaka as Minister for Law without first examining whether he was a suitable candidate for the position (given Tanaka’s murky political past, the fact that he was even considered raises a whole swathe of red flags concerning the DPJ executive’s judgment). As such, the DPJ’s own blinkered approach to cabinet appointments means that Tanaka’s resignation as Minister on Tuesday (for “health reasons”, according to PM Noda, after only a month in the position (J) has only further damaged PM Noda’s sagging popularity and strengthened opposition LDP and Komeito calls for a snap election.
The situation wasn’t helped at all by comments made by former Foreign Minister and current National Policy Office Secretary Maehara Seiji. On the 21st Maehara appeared on a Fuji Television network program “News 2001”, and promptly managed to unleash a whole wave of speculation regarding debate within the DPJ about a snap election by declaring that…” In my understanding, dissolving parliament in the new year would not constitute (dissolving parliament) “soon”. The Prime Minister is a man who keeps his promises.” (J) This statement has been interpreted as either a slip of the tongue by Maehara (who is not noted for being unduly candid on camera – re: his time as Foreign Minister), or an indication that Maehara believes that only a snap election held within the year will save the DPJ from being hammered at the polls and ceasing to exist as a viable alternative to the LDP/Komeito coalition (as explored very astutely by Yamazaki Hajime here). In short, the longer the DPJ clings to power, the more it damages its chances of maintaining any influence in a future parliament. With the DPJ out of power, PM Noda could step down as leader and allow the party to rebuild its thoroughly tarnished public image. In the meantime Abe Shinzo would be PM before the Senate elections next year. This would result in votes moving back to the DPJ (given Abe’s unpopularity with sections of the community, not to mention his standing with Japan’s neighbours) and head off any attempt by the Reform Party (led by Hashimoto Toru) to seize seats in the Senate.
Whether this scenario has been considered by Maehara is a question that will have to be left to future biographers. At this stage, all one can say is that PM Noda’s term in office may come to a dramatic conclusion if younger members of the DPJ begin to waver in their support and openly suggest that PM Noda call an election. This will be precisely what the opposition wants, but in the end it will restore the DPJ and increase the chances of a LDP/Komeito coalition having to deal with yet another hung parliament.
The situation wasn’t helped at all by comments made by former Foreign Minister and current National Policy Office Secretary Maehara Seiji. On the 21st Maehara appeared on a Fuji Television network program “News 2001”, and promptly managed to unleash a whole wave of speculation regarding debate within the DPJ about a snap election by declaring that…” In my understanding, dissolving parliament in the new year would not constitute (dissolving parliament) “soon”. The Prime Minister is a man who keeps his promises.” (J) This statement has been interpreted as either a slip of the tongue by Maehara (who is not noted for being unduly candid on camera – re: his time as Foreign Minister), or an indication that Maehara believes that only a snap election held within the year will save the DPJ from being hammered at the polls and ceasing to exist as a viable alternative to the LDP/Komeito coalition (as explored very astutely by Yamazaki Hajime here). In short, the longer the DPJ clings to power, the more it damages its chances of maintaining any influence in a future parliament. With the DPJ out of power, PM Noda could step down as leader and allow the party to rebuild its thoroughly tarnished public image. In the meantime Abe Shinzo would be PM before the Senate elections next year. This would result in votes moving back to the DPJ (given Abe’s unpopularity with sections of the community, not to mention his standing with Japan’s neighbours) and head off any attempt by the Reform Party (led by Hashimoto Toru) to seize seats in the Senate.
Whether this scenario has been considered by Maehara is a question that will have to be left to future biographers. At this stage, all one can say is that PM Noda’s term in office may come to a dramatic conclusion if younger members of the DPJ begin to waver in their support and openly suggest that PM Noda call an election. This will be precisely what the opposition wants, but in the end it will restore the DPJ and increase the chances of a LDP/Komeito coalition having to deal with yet another hung parliament.
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