Support for the Abe government. Source: https://www.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/shijiritsu/ With the 2017 House of Representatives election kicking off in predictable style on Tuesday, NHK published the results of a public opinion poll carried out last week. It showed that 56% of voters do plan to go to a polling station on election day, a 3 point rise from the previous poll. Of particular interest was the number of people expressing support for the Abe government was unchanged from last week at 37%, while the number of respondents expressing dissatisfaction with the current cabinet stood at 43%, one percentage point down from last week. The poll also revealed that while 32% of respondents expressed a great amount of interest in the current election, 44% said they had some interest, with a further 16% saying they didn’t really have much interest at all. Furthermore, while 23% of respondents thought that PM Abe’s decision to go to the polls had some merit, 34% thought that there was little merit, while 31% thought there was no merit in calling an election at all.
However, when turning to support for political parties, it is clear that the LDP has little to fear in terms of a backlash against their decision to go to the polls, with 31.2% of respondents expressing support for the LDP with another 3.8% in favour of the Komeito. The next closest challenger, the Party of Hope, languishes at 4.8%, with the Japanese Communist Party coming in behind the Komeito at 2.7%. At this rate the election looks as though it will follow current trends – lax voter interest, coupled with no real alternatives to the ruling parties’ policies, will inevitably lead to the re-election of the incumbent government. If change is to happen, then it will depend on whether any of the minor parties can persuade the 39.1% of respondents who have not expressed support for any particular party to suddenly shift their position. The numbers don’t suggest this is possible, but one can never rule out a surprise result.
What might raise a few voter hackles is the fact that there are 83 members of the House of Reps who have neither put forward any legislation nor asked any questions during the course of the year. When considering that each member of the House of Representatives earns an annual salary of 20 million yen, coupled with an extra 12 million yen per annum tax-free subsidy for “documentation, travel and accommodation”, the absence of any record of Diet activity by such representatives might be cause to doubt their motives for entering politics. While the inclusion of Ozawa Ichirō is more a reflection of his fall from popular grace (his party, the Liberal Party, is currently polling at 0% support among voters, and in its current form the Liberals are unlikely to garner any further public interest in their policies by October 22), and many members might involve themselves in activities for their respective parties without being active in the Diet, the presence of so many members devoid of achievements, or even an active voice, in the Diet serves as point of contention among voters regarding the usefulness of their elected representatives.
However, when turning to support for political parties, it is clear that the LDP has little to fear in terms of a backlash against their decision to go to the polls, with 31.2% of respondents expressing support for the LDP with another 3.8% in favour of the Komeito. The next closest challenger, the Party of Hope, languishes at 4.8%, with the Japanese Communist Party coming in behind the Komeito at 2.7%. At this rate the election looks as though it will follow current trends – lax voter interest, coupled with no real alternatives to the ruling parties’ policies, will inevitably lead to the re-election of the incumbent government. If change is to happen, then it will depend on whether any of the minor parties can persuade the 39.1% of respondents who have not expressed support for any particular party to suddenly shift their position. The numbers don’t suggest this is possible, but one can never rule out a surprise result.
What might raise a few voter hackles is the fact that there are 83 members of the House of Reps who have neither put forward any legislation nor asked any questions during the course of the year. When considering that each member of the House of Representatives earns an annual salary of 20 million yen, coupled with an extra 12 million yen per annum tax-free subsidy for “documentation, travel and accommodation”, the absence of any record of Diet activity by such representatives might be cause to doubt their motives for entering politics. While the inclusion of Ozawa Ichirō is more a reflection of his fall from popular grace (his party, the Liberal Party, is currently polling at 0% support among voters, and in its current form the Liberals are unlikely to garner any further public interest in their policies by October 22), and many members might involve themselves in activities for their respective parties without being active in the Diet, the presence of so many members devoid of achievements, or even an active voice, in the Diet serves as point of contention among voters regarding the usefulness of their elected representatives.
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