Source: city.shibukawa.gunma.jp The candidate rolls are in for the Japanese House of Reps election on December 16, and what a motley bunch they do make. This particular election is marked by the appearance of 12, count ‘em 12, parties all vying for seats in the Lower House. Originally it was supposed to be 15, however either because of a meeting of minds or the realisation that there is safety in numbers (or the prospect of holding the balance of power), the People’s Lives Come First Party (the party of Ozawa Ichiro) amalgamated with the Party for the Realisation of Lower Taxes, Anti-TPP and Anti-Nuclear Party on the 28th of November, only to be joined shortly afterwards by members of the “Green Wind” Party and the latent appeal of Shiga Prefecture Governor Kada Yukiko to form the “Party of the Future”. Needless to say, all agreed on three core principles – no tax increases, keep Japan out of TPP negotiations, and dismantle all nuclear reactors (thus putting them in the same camp as the Socialists and Communist Party, although no word yet on whether the Party of the Future will want to associate with the “ideology of the past”).
Speaking of the past, Abe Shinzo and the LDP have been talking up their security credentials yet again, vowing to place public servants (i.e, SDF personnel) on the Senkaku Islands to reinforce Japan’s territorial integrity, put even greater pressure on North Korea (with what is unclear, but one assumes that more sanctions are in mind), revamp the alliance with the US (no-one else? Have you forgotten your neighbours already?), have the BoJ pay for stimulus measures (and thereby increase the national debt), continue to use nuclear power (after all, those power plants were built under LDP rule, so why break with tradition now?) - in sum, try to keep everything as similar to what it was in 2009 before the LDP lost power (bar constitutional revision and renaming the SDF the “National Defence Army” despite public opposition to any such change).
The large number of candidates standing for this election has also surprised some (mainly the media) – 1,504 according to the Yomiuri Shimbun, the most there has ever been since the single-seat and proportional representation system was introduced in 1996 (J). Of those candidates, the Communist Party fields the largest number in the single seat electoral districts – 299, compared to 288 for the LDP and 264 for the DPJ. These numbers may indicate two things; either public sentiment with the current state of Japanese politics is so poor that it’s spurred greater levels of political participation in the hope of gaining a seat from that discontent, or the major parties are terrified that their support base is about to be eroded by “third party” candidates and so are trying to plug the gaps by swamping districts with their own candidates. Expectations are that the LDP will emerge the victors, but they may not hold a majority in either the Upper or Lower House and will have to make deals to function as a government (that is, bar the Supreme Court ruling the election result unconstitutional – not likely, but always a possibility - J). If the LDP do decide to join up with another party (outside of New Komeito), that will probably be the Reformist Party of Ishihara Shintaro and Hashimoto Toru. Yet here lies another dilemma – three political personalities; one, a former governor and novelist, and a bona-fide rightist; two, former TV personality and lawyer, good with slogans, rightist but also liberal in regard to economics; three, former PM, a political “blue-blood”, determined to create a legacy of constitutional reform, not a dynamic speaker and liable to be overshadowed by his more gregarious “partners”.
Even if the LDP do form government, with a triumvirate of the above characters there’s no telling how long it would last before disagreements begin to emerge. Given the force of personalities at work, one thinks that compromise will be the last thing on their minds (although Ishihara has given ground to Hashimoto on economic issues and nuclear energy). Whatever alliances do emerge out of the election, given the nature of Japanese politics and the tendency for “zero-sum” arguments, there will be a considerable amount of discord between and within the major parties on complex issues such as economic stimulus packages, taxation, energy and national security. If they actually do resolve their issues, there is still the matter of the Upper House to contend with. In other words, if political reform and social progress was obstructed before, it’s about to get a whole lot worse. And without a leader with either charisma or leadership ability, no party is likely to transcend this situation. Oh happy days....
Speaking of the past, Abe Shinzo and the LDP have been talking up their security credentials yet again, vowing to place public servants (i.e, SDF personnel) on the Senkaku Islands to reinforce Japan’s territorial integrity, put even greater pressure on North Korea (with what is unclear, but one assumes that more sanctions are in mind), revamp the alliance with the US (no-one else? Have you forgotten your neighbours already?), have the BoJ pay for stimulus measures (and thereby increase the national debt), continue to use nuclear power (after all, those power plants were built under LDP rule, so why break with tradition now?) - in sum, try to keep everything as similar to what it was in 2009 before the LDP lost power (bar constitutional revision and renaming the SDF the “National Defence Army” despite public opposition to any such change).
The large number of candidates standing for this election has also surprised some (mainly the media) – 1,504 according to the Yomiuri Shimbun, the most there has ever been since the single-seat and proportional representation system was introduced in 1996 (J). Of those candidates, the Communist Party fields the largest number in the single seat electoral districts – 299, compared to 288 for the LDP and 264 for the DPJ. These numbers may indicate two things; either public sentiment with the current state of Japanese politics is so poor that it’s spurred greater levels of political participation in the hope of gaining a seat from that discontent, or the major parties are terrified that their support base is about to be eroded by “third party” candidates and so are trying to plug the gaps by swamping districts with their own candidates. Expectations are that the LDP will emerge the victors, but they may not hold a majority in either the Upper or Lower House and will have to make deals to function as a government (that is, bar the Supreme Court ruling the election result unconstitutional – not likely, but always a possibility - J). If the LDP do decide to join up with another party (outside of New Komeito), that will probably be the Reformist Party of Ishihara Shintaro and Hashimoto Toru. Yet here lies another dilemma – three political personalities; one, a former governor and novelist, and a bona-fide rightist; two, former TV personality and lawyer, good with slogans, rightist but also liberal in regard to economics; three, former PM, a political “blue-blood”, determined to create a legacy of constitutional reform, not a dynamic speaker and liable to be overshadowed by his more gregarious “partners”.
Even if the LDP do form government, with a triumvirate of the above characters there’s no telling how long it would last before disagreements begin to emerge. Given the force of personalities at work, one thinks that compromise will be the last thing on their minds (although Ishihara has given ground to Hashimoto on economic issues and nuclear energy). Whatever alliances do emerge out of the election, given the nature of Japanese politics and the tendency for “zero-sum” arguments, there will be a considerable amount of discord between and within the major parties on complex issues such as economic stimulus packages, taxation, energy and national security. If they actually do resolve their issues, there is still the matter of the Upper House to contend with. In other words, if political reform and social progress was obstructed before, it’s about to get a whole lot worse. And without a leader with either charisma or leadership ability, no party is likely to transcend this situation. Oh happy days....
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